June 2015 Grain Market Outlook

Brenda Boetel – Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin-River Falls
715-425-3176

Corn

▪ Corn rated as good or excellent is at 74%, compared to 76% last year.
▪ Dollar has been down and lower against the dollar index, which has boosted corn and soybean prices.
▪ Traders tend to focus on value of the dollar when there is little supply and demand information.
▪ Export shipments have been lower than needed to meet current USDA forecasts of 1.825 BB. Commitments are also lagging.
▪ Price has rallied the first week of June and may break the two-month downtrend.
▪ Market is still oversold.
▪ RFS for ethanol was cut and will require 3.75 billion fewer gallons of corn-based ethanol, which would be
▪ 1.3 billion bushels of corn. The mandate hasn’t been binding recently as US has produced above it. For 2014 to 13.25 billion gallons from 14.4 billion. For 2015 to 13.4 billion gallons from 15 billion. For 2016 to 14 billion gallons from 16 billion.
▪ December 2015 corn price on June 4, 2015 of $3.80 is down approximately 18% from last year’s June 4 price of $4.6175
and will likely continue downward till harvest.

Soybean

▪ Rain has been affecting western Midwest and there may be a decrease from the forecasted 87 Million acres projected
plantings.
▪ Export demand for soybeans and meal is strong and continuing. Exports are on track to be 10 million higher than current
USDA forecasts.
▪ USDA may drop carry by 10 million to 340 million bushels due to strong demand.
▪ Quarterly stocks report is due June 30 and will give direction for soy prices.
▪ RFS was bullish for soy oil as proposed levels for biodiesel were increased.
▪ For 2014 to 1.63 billion gallons from 1.28 billion
▪ For 2015 to 1.7 billion gallons from 1.28 billion
▪ November 2015 soybean price on June 4, 2015 of $9.1875 is down approximately 23% from last year’s June 4 price of
$11.9475 and will likely continue to drop. This week’s increase has been due to weather concerns regarding planting, but
even with a small decrease in acreage likely see prices continue to drop long-term.
▪ November futures prices will likely dip as low as $8.75. Market wants beans sooner rather than later as seen in the spread and farmers are light sellers. Tiete-Parana waterway in Brazil, which typically transports 2.5 MMT of soybeans and corn, will reopen in second half of 2015. The reopening will
cut transportation costs by approximately 10-15%.

Wheat

▪ Heavy rains may bring about yield losses.
▪ Likely see small increase in USDA ending stocks for 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 marketing years.
▪ New crop began on June 1.
▪ HRS spring wheat is at 69% good to excellent rating as of May 24.
To read Brenda’ entire article, please download the June 11 issue of the Wisconsin Crop Manager.

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